The new Quebec government wants to separate from Canada, but that might be a way off, and there are some hurdles the new government must jump beforehand, according to a political scientist.
On Monday, the Parti Quebecois won a minority government lead by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
The party is planning to call a third vote once U.S. President Trump’s term ends early on in 2029.
Tom Urbaniak, political scientist at Cape Breton University, says one of the big questions, in the meantime, is how they will work with the other provinces.
Urbaniak says the leader has conflicting views and may seem different depending on the day.
“Some days he comes across as collaborative,” says Urbaniak.
“In the immediate aftermath of the election, he gave a speech that was generally considered to be moderate, open to ideas from the other parties in the Quebec National Assembly, and focused on being pragmatic. But some days he comes across as a conflict-creating ideologue,” says Urbaniak.
The previous vote to separate, in 1995, the second for the province, carried a 50.58 per cent vote to stay in Canada, and 49.42 per cent to separate.
Election likely before referendum vote
Although they may want to separate in 2029, the Parti Quebecois has won a minority government, and Urbaniak says we will likely see another election before then.
Urbaniak says they could push division by driving a wedge between them and Ottawa, but as they work toward separating, they could also focus on “good, pragmatic government” to build support in the province for the party and by extension their push to separate.
Then, with the extra support, they could withstand another election, potentially win a majority, and have much better odds at getting a referendum through the Quebec National Assembly and then get a vote out to the public.
Without that majority, they would have to get support from other parties. However, they could dip their toes into more left-wing politics and work with the Quebec Solidaire party, who is pro Quebec independence, although a different version of it than the one from Parti Quebecois, says Urbaniak.
On the other hand, Plamondon could veer to the right and get support from the provincial Conservative Party.
Building support most likely option
Of all the options, building support before another election, leading to a referendum vote with a majority government, seems the most likely, says Urbaniak.
One indication of his desire to work with other provinces is that Plamondon has voiced his support for the Churchill Falls hydro energy project, according to Urbaniak. That is a collaboration between Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as the federal government.
Projects like that are part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s strategy to build national unity, says Urbaniak.
“Carney has adopted a pragmatic approach, collaborative federalism, trying to unite people behind major projects, standing firm, albeit very sort of calmly and professionally, against the American threat,” says Urbaniak.
“So, can he continue that? Because that is an important part of the recipe for maintaining not only Canadian unity, but confidence in Canadian unity.”
